How many manufacturing jobs could go unfilled by 2033?
Quick answer: U.S. manufacturers could need as many as 3.8 million additional employees between 2024 and 2033. Without meaningful progress on the industry’s applicant and skills gaps, approximately 1.9 million of those positions could remain unfilled. That makes retaining the skilled employees manufacturers already have an increasingly important workforce-capacity strategy.
The manufacturing workforce challenge is often framed as a recruiting problem: there simply are not enough qualified people applying for open jobs. But the numbers suggest the challenge is bigger than that. Research from Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute projects that U.S. manufacturing could need as many as 3.8 million additional employees between 2024 and 2033, with roughly half of those positions potentially going unfilled.
That projection changes the economics of employee retention. Manufacturers will still need to recruit aggressively, expand training pipelines, and bring more people into manufacturing, but every preventable resignation creates one more vacancy in a labor market that is already projected to fall short.
Retention has become part of the skills-gap equation.
What is causing the manufacturing skills gap?
The projected 3.8 million-worker need is not coming from a single source. According to The Manufacturing Institute and Deloitte, approximately:
- 2.8 million openings could result from retirements
- 760,000 jobs could come from industry growth
- 230,000 jobs could result from recent investment and manufacturing expansion
That means the industry is trying to replace a large number of experienced workers while also adding capacity and adapting to changing technology. Automation, advanced equipment, connected systems, robotics, data, and other technologies are changing what many manufacturing roles require.
The result is not only an applicant shortage. It is also a skills shortage. There may not be enough people entering manufacturing to meet demand, and among available workers, there may not be enough people with the specific capabilities manufacturers need. That makes unnecessary workforce loss more consequential.
Retirements make preventable turnover more expensive
A large share of the projected manufacturing workforce need is tied to retirement, so some workforce loss is unavoidable. Manufacturers cannot prevent experienced employees from retiring indefinitely, nor should that be the goal.
But retirement pressure makes preventable turnover more important to control. If an experienced technician retires, the organization already has a vacancy to fill, knowledge to transfer, and potentially a new employee to train. If another skilled employee on the same team leaves because of a preventable workplace issue, the organization now has two workforce gaps instead of one.
That is why manufacturers should separate expected workforce transitions from avoidable workforce loss. Retirement planning, succession planning, knowledge transfer, employee development, and retention all need to work together.
The more useful question becomes: Which workforce losses can we anticipate, which can we prevent, and what skills are at risk when they happen?
The manufacturing skills gap is also a knowledge gap
Headcount tells only part of the story. A maintenance technician with 20 years of experience does not take only one employee ID with them when they leave. They may take years of practical knowledge about equipment, processes, suppliers, safety risks, troubleshooting, and workarounds.
The same is true when a skilled machinist, production lead, engineer, quality specialist, or experienced operator leaves unexpectedly. Some of that knowledge is documented; much of it may not be.
When manufacturers lose experienced employees faster than they can transfer knowledge and develop replacements, a staffing gap can become a capability gap. Retention is therefore not only about keeping positions filled. It is about protecting critical skills and knowledge long enough to transfer, develop, and expand them.
Why does retention matter when 1.9 million jobs could remain unfilled?
When qualified talent is plentiful, employers may assume that employees who leave can be replaced. When the broader industry faces a projected shortfall of 1.9 million workers, that assumption becomes much riskier.
For many roles, a replacement may take time to find. The new hire may need additional training, other employees may absorb overtime or extra responsibilities while the position remains open, and supervisors or experienced coworkers may spend more time onboarding instead of focusing on production.
Those effects are why manufacturers should understand the true cost of manufacturing turnover rather than viewing voluntary turnover only as a percentage on an HR dashboard. The tighter the available talent pool becomes, the more expensive it is to repeatedly replace people who could have stayed.
Retention is about reducing avoidable workforce loss
Not every departure can or should be prevented. The objective is not zero turnover; it is to identify where skilled employees are leaving for reasons the organization can influence.
People Element’s 2025 benchmark data shows why that distinction matters. Across more than 94,000 employee responses, Communication & Employee Voice, Growth & Value, and Leadership Effectiveness emerged as the leading drivers of employee engagement. Those same three themes have consistently appeared among People Element’s strongest engagement drivers since 2022.
For manufacturers, those are meaningful retention signals. An organization may not be able to change demographic trends or the number of workers available in the external labor market, but it can improve how employees experience communication, growth, leadership, and whether they feel valued.
That is where retention strategy becomes actionable.
Development helps protect scarce skills
A skills shortage makes employee development valuable for two reasons. First, development helps manufacturers build capabilities they may not be able to hire quickly from the outside. Second, development can give skilled employees a stronger reason to remain with the organization.
People Element’s 2025 benchmark data found that 71% of employees said they have someone at work who encourages their development and 66% said they are provided opportunities to grow professionally. Yet only 56% said they feel they have an opportunity to be promoted.
For manufacturers, growth does not have to mean moving every strong technician or operator into management. It can mean learning new equipment, cross-training on another process, earning a certification, building automation or digital skills, becoming a technical lead, mentoring newer employees, or moving into maintenance, quality, engineering, or another specialized path.
When external skills are scarce, developing more capability internally can reduce some of the pressure to hire it from the outside.
Retaining experienced employees protects knowledge transfer
New employees need people to learn from. Apprenticeships, mentorship, on-the-job training, and cross-training all depend on experienced employees being available to transfer what they know.
That makes retention especially important during periods of heavy retirement. If experienced employees leave faster than manufacturers can transfer their knowledge, companies may recruit new workers into teams that have less capacity to train them effectively.
Retention helps preserve the bridge between the current workforce and the next one.
Frontline managers can create preventable workforce loss
When skilled employees have options, their day-to-day experience matters. Frontline managers influence communication, coaching, recognition, development, trust, workload, and whether employees feel heard. Those factors can either strengthen retention or create avoidable risk.
People Element’s engagement research consistently identifies Leadership Effectiveness as one of the strongest drivers of employee engagement. That makes manager effectiveness a workforce-capacity issue, not simply a leadership-development issue.
For a deeper look at the connection between supervisors and retention, see Retention Isn’t About Pay, It’s About Managers.
Retention data needs to get more specific than a company-wide rate
An overall turnover rate can look acceptable while one critical population is losing people much faster than the rest of the organization.
Manufacturers should examine retention and employee feedback by:
- Location
- Department
- Shift
- Role
- Tenure
- Manager
- Critical skill set
Suppose company-wide turnover looks stable, but maintenance technicians are leaving at twice the organizational average. That is not simply a turnover issue; it is a workforce-capacity risk. Or imagine first-year turnover is concentrated on one shift, where employees also report weaker onboarding and lower confidence in their supervisor.
Those patterns tell leaders where preventable workforce loss is actually happening.
Don’t wait for exit interviews to identify critical retention risk
Exit feedback is valuable, but it arrives after the employee has already made the decision to leave. A stronger retention strategy looks for signals earlier.
Onboarding surveys can identify early friction and first-year turnover risk. Engagement surveys can show where communication, leadership, growth, or feeling valued are weakening. Stay interviews can reveal what keeps hard-to-replace employees with the organization and what might cause them to reconsider. Manager feedback can expose team-level leadership risks, while exit surveys can confirm whether the same themes ultimately show up among departing employees.
For organizations with large frontline populations, that listening also has to reach employees across shifts and work environments. Collecting feedback from frontline and deskless employees is essential if manufacturers want an accurate view of retention risk.
How can manufacturers reduce retention risk during the skills shortage?
Manufacturers can reduce retention risk by identifying preventable turnover, protecting critical skills, developing employees internally, strengthening frontline managers, and listening to employees before they decide to leave. The goal is not to eliminate every departure. It is to avoid adding unnecessary workforce loss to an already difficult skills gap.
Five actions can help:
1. Identify the talent that is hardest to replace
Look beyond company-wide turnover and identify which roles, locations, skills, and tenure groups create the greatest operational risk when they leave.
2. Separate unavoidable exits from preventable turnover
Plan for retirements and other expected transitions while investigating where employee-experience issues may be causing avoidable loss.
3. Build critical capabilities internally
Use cross-training, technical development, apprenticeships, mentoring, and certifications to reduce dependence on finding fully trained talent externally.
4. Protect knowledge transfer
Identify employees and roles carrying critical institutional knowledge and create intentional plans for sharing that expertise.
5. Listen before talent walks out the door
Connect onboarding, engagement, stay, manager, and exit feedback so organizations can identify retention risks while there is still time to act.
The skills gap changes the value of the workforce you already have
The projected manufacturing workforce shortage makes one thing clear: existing employees cannot be treated as easily replaceable. The industry could need as many as 3.8 million additional employees by 2033, while 1.9 million positions could remain unfilled if applicant and skills gaps persist.
Much of that need will come from retirements and growth manufacturers cannot avoid. That makes preventable turnover even more consequential. Every skilled employee a manufacturer retains is one fewer vacancy to fill in a constrained talent market. Every experienced employee who stays long enough to transfer critical knowledge strengthens the workers coming behind them. Every capability developed internally reduces some of the pressure to find those skills externally.
Recruiting will remain essential, but retention determines how much harder recruiting has to work.
Protect the workforce you already have
People Element helps manufacturers listen across the employee lifecycle—from onboarding and engagement to stay, manager, and exit feedback—so leaders can identify where critical talent is at risk and what may be driving employees to stay or leave.
As the manufacturing skills gap grows, that insight can help organizations focus retention efforts where they matter most.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many manufacturing jobs will need to be filled by 2033?
Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute estimate that U.S. manufacturing could need as many as 3.8 million additional employees between 2024 and 2033, driven largely by retirements as well as industry growth and investment.
How many manufacturing jobs could go unfilled by 2033?
Approximately 1.9 million manufacturing positions could remain unfilled by 2033 if manufacturers are unable to address persistent applicant and skills gaps.
What is causing the manufacturing skills gap?
The manufacturing skills gap is being driven by retirements, industry growth, demand for increasingly technical skills, competition for skilled workers, and an insufficient pipeline of qualified applicants.
Why does employee retention matter in manufacturing?
Retention reduces the number of additional positions manufacturers need to refill while the industry already faces a significant projected talent shortage. It also helps preserve institutional knowledge and critical skills.
Are all 3.8 million manufacturing jobs new jobs?
No. Most of the projected workforce need is tied to replacement demand, particularly retirements, rather than entirely new positions.
How can manufacturers tell whether turnover is caused by pay or managers?
Manufacturers can reduce retention risk by identifying hard-to-replace talent, developing employees internally, strengthening frontline managers, protecting knowledge transfer, and listening to employees throughout the employee lifecycle.
